Chapter 34 The Central Bank as a Barometer
Chapter 34 The Central Bank as a Barometer
In December, the sky over Nagata Town is like an old rag that has been washed repeatedly, exuding a depressing gray-white hue.
The air here seemed heavier than elsewhere in Tokyo. The granite National Diet Building stood in the cold wind like a massive mausoleum, with only its top partially obscured by the clouds.
The House of Peers Members' Hall.
This is an old building left over from before the war. The corridors are covered with deep red carpets, the edges of which are worn from years of use. Oil portraits of past speakers hang on the walls, their solemn faces watching over everyone who passes by under the dim light of the wall lamps.
Shuichi's office was on the third floor, in a corner room.
The room was small and simply furnished: an old mahogany desk, two leather sofas for guests, and a bookshelf covering one wall.
The old-fashioned cast iron radiator in the corner was working at full capacity, making a hissing sound as water flowed, and occasionally making a crisp "clang" sound due to the thermal expansion and contraction of the pipes.
Shuichi sat behind his desk, holding a copy of the day's Nikkei newspaper.
The headline on the front page was shocking:
Exports decline for the sixth consecutive month; number of SME bankruptcies hits post-war high.
The accompanying photo showed the closed gates of an industrial park in Osaka and protesting workers.
"Thump, thump".
Two restrained knocks came from outside the door.
"Please come in."
The door was pushed open a crack, and the secretary peeked in, looking somewhat nervous.
"Member Saionji, Mr. Kato has arrived."
Shuichi put down the newspaper, stood up, and straightened the hem of his suit jacket.
"Please come quickly."
The door was fully open.
A middle-aged man wearing a gray trench coat and a wool scarf walked in. He had no attendants with him and was even carrying a somewhat worn briefcase, looking like an ordinary section chief who had just finished get off work.
But Shuichi knew that this man held the pulse of the entire Japanese economy in his hands.
Masao Kato.
He was the Vice President of the Bank of Japan (central bank). He was also a classmate and close friend of Shuichi at the Faculty of Law, University of Tokyo.
"Long time no see, Shuichi."
Kato took off his scarf, revealing a slightly puffy face. His eye bags were deep, and the bloodshot veins in his eyes were clearly visible—traces of long-term insomnia and excessive anxiety.
"Yes, Masao. It's been about half a year, hasn't it?"
Shuichi stepped forward, but instead of shaking hands, he patted the other person on the shoulder, just like he did back in his student days.
"How come you've lost so much weight?"
"Being criticized for being too thin."
Kato gave a wry smile, casually placed his briefcase on the sofa, and sank heavily into it.
"Every morning when I wake up, I'm first scolded by people from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, then by people from the Ministry of Finance, and when I get home at night, I have to watch the commentators on TV scolding me."
He rubbed his temples and let out a long sigh.
"It's hard not to lose weight in this position."
Xiu turned around and walked to the tea cabinet, where he personally brewed two cups of sencha.
The tea was a common variety from Shizuoka, not some rare Gyokuro. But he knew Kato liked the taste; it was the same kind of tea they drank when they stayed up all night studying for the bar exam in college.
"Have a cup of tea."
Shuichi placed the steaming teacup in front of Kato.
"Thanks."
Kato picked up the teacup, greedily inhaled the hot steam, and his tense shoulders seemed to relax a little.
"It's so cold outside," he exclaimed. "I heard this winter is going to be tough."
"Yeah." Shuichi sat on the sofa opposite him, pointing to the newspaper on the table. "I saw on the news that the situation doesn't look too good. The manufacturing industry is complaining a lot."
"It's more than just pessimistic."
Kato put down his teacup, his eyes turning gloomy.
"The Americans are forcing us to appreciate our currency, saying it's to balance the trade deficit. Now the yen has appreciated from 240 to 160, and export companies are basically bleeding money. Especially those small and medium-sized factories without core technologies, presidents are jumping off buildings every day."
"There's a lot of pressure from the Prime Minister's Office. Prime Minister Nakasone summoned me yesterday, and although he didn't say everything explicitly, the meaning was clear—something has to be done."
Shuichi didn't speak, he just listened quietly.
He knew that Kato's visit today, in a private capacity, was not merely to vent his frustrations.
During this sensitive period, if the vice president of the central bank were to be photographed by reporters having a private meeting with a member of the House of Lords, it would provide material for countless conspiracy theories.
"Shuichi."
Kato suddenly looked up and stared at his old classmate through his glasses.
"You've been making a lot of moves in the real estate industry lately. I heard about that building in Ginza. It was a great job."
"It's just a small thing," Xiu Yi smiled modestly. "Just to earn some pocket money and help with household expenses."
"Pocket money?"
Kato shook his head with a half-smile.
"In Ginza today, the rental yield of a single building is higher than that of government bonds. This is not pocket money."
He was silent for a moment, his fingers unconsciously stroking the rim of the teacup.
"Actually, I came here today because there's something I want to remind you of."
coming.
Shuichi's heart raced slightly, but his expression remained calm.
"you say."
Kato glanced at the doorway to make sure it was closed tightly.
Then, he leaned forward and lowered his voice, as if afraid of disturbing the dust in the air.
"January next year, or at the latest February."
He held up two fingers and made a scissor gesture.
"We're about to make our move."
"Make a move?" Xiu asked. "You mean...?"
"Interest rate cut."
Kato uttered those two words with a heavy tone, as if he were delivering a verdict.
"And it's not a minor adjustment. We're going to cut the official discount rate to 2.5% in one go."
Xiu Yi's hand, holding the teacup, froze in mid-air.
2.5%.
In this day and age, this is practically negative interest rates.
This means that banks have almost no cost in obtaining money from the central bank. This means that deposits in banks become worthless.
"This is too radical," Xiu said, frowning. "It will overwhelm the market."
"no way."
Kato helplessly spread his hands.
"This is the only solution. If we don't cut interest rates, domestic demand won't pick up, and GDP will turn negative. The Americans won't agree either; they're demanding that we stimulate domestic consumption and buy more of their goods."
"We have no choice but to open the sluice gate."
Kato leaned back on the sofa, looking at the dim yellow chandelier on the ceiling.
"Do you know what this means, Shuichi?"
"This means money will become cheaper than paper."
"Banks will beg businesses and individuals for loans like mad dogs. Projects that were previously too risky to invest in, and assets that were previously unaffordable, will suddenly become readily available overnight."
"It's like giving a person who's about to freeze to death a super-large dose of adrenaline."
Kato turned his head and looked at Shuichi with a complicated expression.
"He will come back to life. But he will also go insane."
"As a central bank, our responsibility is to maintain currency stability. But now... we are creating inflation ourselves."
"This is a sin."
Shuichi remained silent for a long time.
He sensed the helplessness and fear in his old classmate's words. As an elite trained in traditional economics, Kato clearly understood the consequences of such massive monetary easing.
This is more than just a bailout.
Pandora's box—will be opened by their own hands.
"Major husband."
Xiu put down his teacup, his voice low.
"Since you knew the consequences, why did you tell me?"
Logically speaking, this is an absolute state secret. Leaking this information before the official announcement would be enough to land Kato in jail.
Kato smiled.
His laughter was tinged with sadness.
"Because you're from the Saionji family. Because you recently bought a property."
He stood up and picked up his trench coat and scarf from the sofa.
"If you still have cash, spend it as soon as possible. Or... borrow more money."
"By next spring, when you want to borrow money, it might be too late. At that time, people from all over Japan will be crowding the bank doors."
Kato tied his scarf as he walked toward the door.
"Consider this a bit of 'insider information' from your old classmate. Anyway... this information will leak to those tycoons through various channels in a few days."
"In this country, there are some things that someone has to know first."
Shuichi stood up, intending to see him off.
"No need to deliver it."
Kato waved his hand.
"Let me walk around by myself. I want to see if this gray Nagata-cho can stay quiet for a few more days."
The door opened, then closed again.
The cold wind in the corridor briefly intruded, but was quickly swallowed up by the heating.
Only Xiu Yi remained in the office.
The tea in the teacup had gone completely cold.
Xiuyi walked to the window and pushed it open a crack.
The cold wind howled in, ruffling his meticulously styled hair and dissipating the warmth in the room.
Downstairs, several black buses were slowly driving out of the Capitol gates, their taillights casting red afterimages in the twilight.
That gray world still looked lifeless.
But in Xiu Yi's eyes, every inch of air and every brick here had begun to stir.
The interest rate is 2.5%.
What kind of number is that?
It would be the best accelerant.
It will add enough fuel to turn the whole of Japan into a giant furnace.
Once ignited, all rationality, all restraint, and all traditional values will be reduced to ashes in the flames.
All that remains is the revelry of desire.
Xiu closed the window, shutting out the sound of the wind outside.
He returned to his desk and picked up the red telephone receiver.
It was an encrypted dedicated line that led directly to the main family's study in Bunkyo Ward.
"Beep—beep—"
The phone rang twice before being answered.
The sound of pages turning came from the other end of the receiver, followed by an overly calm female voice.
"Father?"
It is Gaoyue.
Shuichi took a deep breath, feeling his throat go dry.
His knuckles, which were gripping the receiver, turned slightly white.
"Satsuki".
Shuichi's voice was a little hoarse, but every word was crystal clear.
"The wind is coming."
There was a moment of silence on the other end of the phone.
How strong is the wind?
Satsuki's voice remained steady, but Shuichi could detect a hint of barely suppressed excitement within it.
"Typhoon".
Shuichi replied.
"And it's a super typhoon. The floodgates will have to be opened. 2.5% in January next year."
"Click."
A crisp sound came from the other end of the phone. It sounded like a pencil breaking.
Immediately following was a soft laugh.
That was the laughter of the victors.
"It's finally here."
Satsuki's voice became light and cheerful, as if she were singing a lively children's song.
"Father, it seems our Christmas presents have arrived early."
"Make sure you have all the cash in your house ready."
"Also, notify the bank. We need to borrow money."
"How much do you want to borrow?"
"Borrow as much as you can."
"Even if we have to mortgage the Crystal Palace in Ginza, even if we have to mortgage the family's land deeds, it doesn't matter."
"Because starting tomorrow, money will be nothing but worthless paper."
"We want to exchange waste paper for all the gold in the world."
Shuichi hung up the phone.
He stared at the red receiver, remaining motionless for a long time.
The radiator was still hissing.
It sounded like a fuse burning.
That was the sound of the monster called "Foam" hatching from its shell.
Outside the window, night has fallen.
The lights of Nagatacho came on, twinkling and connecting.
They looked so quiet and peaceful.
A flood powerful enough to engulf everything is quietly approaching under the tranquil night.
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